All the Indo-Canadian ministers in incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s cabinet appear to be retaining their seats in the House of Commons while New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Jagmeet Singh is comfortably ahead of his closest challenger.

Between them, the three main parties, the ruling Liberals under Justin Trudeau, the principal opposition Conservatives and the NDP, have fielded as many as 54 Indo-Canadian candidates. The Liberals have 20 such nominees, the Conservatives 18 and the NDP 16.

The community could be eyeing a record number of seats in the House of Commons. In 2019, as many as 23 Indo-Canadians were victorious in the Federal elections, besting the mark established in 2015, when there were 21 MPs elected.

The four most prominent candidates including minister of national defence Harjit Sajjan, minister of public services and procurement Anita Anand, minister of diversity and inclusion and youth Bardish Chagger and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh. The latter pair is most comfortably positioned to retain their seats.

Jagmeet Singh retained the Burnaby South riding (as constituencies are called in Canada) in the province of British Columbia with 37.7% of the vote in 2019, but has since expanded his support and is polling at 44%, according to the figures available at the tracking website 338 Canada. Similarly, Bardish Chagger is almost certain of being re-elected as she is receiving support at nearly the levels that saw her win the Waterloo in Ontario in 2019, which is around 49%.

Bardish Chagger’s two Indo-Canadian Cabinet colleagues are facing closer contests but both are leading. Harjit Sajjan is recording around 42% of support, around the same level as in the previous federal elections and with votes being split between his Conservative and NDP rivals, he will be tipped to win again from Vancouver South in British Columbia.

Anita Anand, meanwhile, is enjoying approximately 43% support, three points lower than when she first entered Parliament in 2019 from Oakville in Ontario but still three points ahead of her Conservative opponent.

Perhaps the most high-profile Indo-Canadian trailing is former minister of state in the Conservative government of PM Stephen Harper, Tim Uppal. Uppal won from Edmonton Mill Woods in Alberta with over 50% of the votes cast in 2019, but is only at 35% in this cycle, two points behind his Liberal Party rival.

Areas dominated by Indo-Canadians, including the Greater Toronto Area, Metro Vancouver and sections of the cities of Edmonton and Calgary will be critical in defining the overall outcome of the election.

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