According to the forecast from the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, the average August-September 2022 temperature in the northern region is about 0.5 degrees Celsius higher than the many-year average; October 2022 approximate (TBNN); November-December 2022 is about 0.5 degrees Celsius lower than average; In January 2023, the temperature was about the average of the same period in the same period.
However, it was winter and it was mid-November, people in the north still felt the heat, even many people had to wear short sleeve shirts when they went out. The highest daily temperature forecast for almost a month hovers around 30 degrees Celsius.
Statistics from the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting show that from early October to now, although there are still cold air waves, only a cold air wave strengthens from October 18 to October 20 and causes cold weather in the north.
The lowest temperature is usually 14-17 degrees Celsius, lower mountainous areas. Where the high mountains are below 11 degrees Celsius in many places. In addition, the Gulf of Tonkin area has seen strong level 6 northeasterly winds and level 7 gusts.
In November, the average temperature in the North and North Central region is 0.5 degrees Celsius higher than the average for many years. Around the middle of the week and the second half of December, the north of our country will experience the first cold and harmful cold wave in the winter of 2022.
In response to PV VTC News, Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Huy, an expert in natural disaster and extreme weather warnings, that La Nina is in late phase this year and is preparing to transition to neutral phase, starting from early 2023. La Nina will transition to neutral phase, rain and cold decrease, passes to warm and dry phase.
“La Nina is still present, but its sphere of influence is no longer on the high latitude axis. The phenomenon of rain and cold is located on the sub-latitude axis near the equator. From latitude 17 and above, it is less affected by La Nina during this time, so the weather is not very cold” said Mr. Hoei.
In the past 10 years, the number of cold air waves hitting our country has decreased compared to the usual data. (Photo: VTV)
Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Huy also stressed that the overall average temperature of this winter will be higher than in previous years. Interspersed with warm sunshine, there is still a deep cold, but it will not last.
“This winter the number of sunny and warm days is a lot, the number of cold days is still there, but less than other years. There may still be cold spells, severe cold and snowfall, but if the overall average of these cold spells is combined with the average of many years ago, it will not be equal. The probability of such waves is not much, because when the neutral phase or El Nino prevails, the probability of creating cold waves will be less”said Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Huy.
According to dr. Nguyen Ngoc Huy shows the Global Climate Forecast Analysis Model (GFS) that the northern provinces of Vietnam will have an average temperature that will be 1 – 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than the average period 1980 – 2009. Meanwhile, the average temperature in the North Central Region will be 0.5 – 1 degree Celsius higher. The temperature in the southern provinces remains unchanged from each year.
“We are likely to have an extremely hot summer next year, when temperatures are expected to be higher than the multi-year average. It is necessary to think about energy saving and efficient use of energy from now on, because next summer there may be a shortage of electricity due to high demand,” said Dr. Hey.
In addition, said Dr. Huy said hail may occur in northern provinces at the beginning of the year, while drought may occur in the Mekong Delta.
“At that point, if the neutral phase lasts longer and is more stable, there will be no extreme weather, but the neutral phase turning into La Nina or El Nino will have more extreme weather,” said Dr. Hey.
Winter is warming up
Information from the program “Vietnam today” on VTV1 on November 12 said that winter is not only late, but also tends to warm due to the effects of climate change, especially in the past 10 years. In which 2016 is considered the warmest year with winter temperatures 2.5 degrees Celsius higher than the average of many years.
The years 2018, 2019, 2020 are on the list of 5 years with the warmest winter in the period 1986 to 2020. Number of days of extreme cold with average daily temperature below 15 degrees Celsius and number of days of severe cold with average daily temperature below 13 degrees Celsius also dropped significantly.
According to statistics from almost 60 years ago, in our country, the number of cold air waves pouring down from Siberia has sharply decreased. Normally there are 29-30 cold spells every year, but in the last 10 years this has dropped to 25 times. In particular, from 2019, 17 waves of cold air from Siberia poured into our country.
Mr. Nguyen Van Huong, head of the weather forecasting department of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, said this winter the temperature in the northern and north central regions tends to be higher than the average over many years of 0.5- 1 degrees Celsius.
In the coming days, from November 19-20, there will be a wave of cold air, stronger than that of November 13-14, bringing strong winds over the Gulf of Tonkin, the north and the middle of the Baltic Sea.
According to Nguyen Van Huong, head of the weather forecasting department at the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, temperatures in the northern and north central regions this winter are usually 0.5 percent higher than the average for many years. (Photo: Nmha.gov.vn)
At the announcement ceremony of the Asia Climate Report 2021, Prof. Dr. Tran Hong Thai, Representative of Vietnam to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Vice President of the Asian Meteorological Association Region II (RA) II), Director General of the General Department of Meteorology, Hydrology, Information, Climate Change has been observed throughout the Asian region. Temperatures in 2021 in the region are 0.86 degrees Celsius higher than the 1981-2010 average.
Less rainfall and less snow and ice growth have affected crop water availability and lower yields. Weather and extreme events driven by climate change have resulted in loss of life and property across the region.
According to estimates by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), 48.3 million people in Asia are directly affected by natural disasters, particularly storms and floods. This resulted in about 4,000 deaths, about 80% due to flooding.
Overall, natural disasters are estimated to have resulted in total economic loss of $35.6 billion, more than the average over the past two decades, especially damage from drought, flooding and landslides.
“These figures do not lie about the vulnerability of the Asian region to climate change. Our region is in real danger from climate change.” Thai said.