A man walks past the carcass of a sheep that died from El Niño-related drought in the town of Marodijeex, southern Hargeysa, in Somaliland’s semi-autonomous region, northern Somalia, April 7, 2016. Reuters Photo/Feisal Omar
There’s a greater than 95% chance that El Niño conditions will prevail from December 2023 to February 2024, a U.S. government forecaster said Thursday, increasing the risks of heat waves and flooding in several countries.
The weather phenomenon, a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific, is already causing natural disasters across the globe, with the stakes higher for emerging markets more exposed to fluctuating food and oil prices. ‘energy.
The latest outlook from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) was a slight improvement on July, when it predicted a 90% chance that the phenomenon would persist through winter.
Earlier in the day, Japan’s meteorological bureau predicted a 90% chance of an El Niño event during the Northern Hemisphere winter.
The World Meteorological Organization had warned in May that weather patterns could contribute to rising global temperatures.
“During July, El Niño continued as indicated by above-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean,” the CPC said.
Given recent developments, forecasters are more confident of a “strong” El Nino event, with around a two in three chance of temperatures rising by around 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) or more in November- January, he added.
El Niño has also threatened global rice supplies, amid dropping shipments of a crucial variety of the main Indian exporter’s staple, as well as other crops such as coffee, sugar and chocolate from Southeast Asia and Africa.
It was also expected to bring drier weather to West Africa, Southeast Asia and northern South America, and wetter conditions to southern South America in second semester.
