LONDON, July 14, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — Expectations of a Trump victory in November have risen dramatically following his CNN debate with Joe Bidenaccording to a new poll by Lord Ashcroft. Biden’s physical and mental abilities are now seen as a more important electoral issue than Trump’s character and judgment. While Trump leads on most key issues, Biden maintains a slight lead among voters.
The recently released sample of 20,000 people was conducted in three waves – before and after Trump’s election. new York convictions and after the debate. The conclusions are as follows:
- Before Trump’s conviction, Americans expected Trump to win by a margin of 4 points (41% to 37%). After the conviction, that margin increased to 5 points, and after the CNN debate, it increased further to 14 points (47% to 33%). The proportion of Democrats expecting Biden to win fell from 74% before the convictions to 67% after the debates.
- Voters are more likely to say that Biden’s physical and mental abilities were the most important factor in the election (46%) than Trump’s character and judgment (43%). Just over a third (35%) of Biden voters in 2020 said Biden’s abilities were more important; the same share of Trump voters said Trump’s character mattered more.
- Among the top five issues facing the country according to voters, Trump leads on the cost of living (19 points), the economy and jobs (26), immigration and border control (68) and crime (17). Biden leads on health care (30). The president also leads on climate change and the environment, women’s rights and Social Security.
- Biden led Trump by 4 points (44% to 40%) among registered voters before the convictions, by 1 point after the convictions (42% to 41%), and by 2 points after the debate (44% to 42%). All changes were within the margin of error. Robert F. Kennedy received 10% in all three polls.
- In all three polls, Trump leads among Hispanic voters and in all age groups up to 44. Biden leads among African Americans (54%) compared to 20% among older voters. Fifteen percent of likely Trump and Biden voters said they might still change their minds. Women, younger voters and independents were most likely to say this.
- Only 8% of Trump voters in 2020 said his beliefs made them less likely to vote for him in November. 48% said they made them more likely, and 44% said they made no difference. In the post-debate survey, the share of voters saying beliefs would make no difference to Trump’s chances of winning rose to 37%; 29% said they would help him, and only 22% said they would make him less likely to win.
- Just under a quarter (24%) of Americans said they felt better off than they did 4 years ago, and 44% said they felt worse off. Biden voters in 2020 felt worse off, by a margin of 33% to 31%. Biden voters in 2020 said the country was headed in the wrong direction, by a margin of 44% to 42%; voters overall did so by a margin of 63% to 24%.
- Trump voters in 2020 were more than twice as likely as Biden voters in 2020 to say the U.S. was doing too much to help UkraineBiden voters were much more likely than Trump voters to say the U.S. was doing too much to help Israel.
Commenting on the findings of his report in the introduction, Lord Ashcroft writes:
“For much of his presidency, Biden’s reelection campaign has been a race against time. The worse the economy gets, the more willing voters will be to overlook Trump’s obvious flaws and put him back in the White House; the bigger the green shoots of economic recovery, the less courage they will have to accept the 4am tweets and other daily features from the Donald Trump to show.
“As my poll shows, the country is divided over what matters more: Biden’s physical and mental abilities or Trump’s character and judgment. From Biden’s perspective, that means the economy has to work harder to compensate. Yet despite improving indicators like falling inflation and rising stock markets, few Americans still feel better off.
“Part of the problem for Democrats is that people are comparing their current situation to their pre-Covid situation, which also happens to be their pre-Biden situation. It may be unfair, but that’s the way politics is — and only a quarter of voters, including just one in three of those who voted for Biden in 2020, say they feel better than they did four years ago. At the same time, Biden’s newfound emphasis on health as a campaign issue effectively neutralizes Trump’s negatives.”
20,210 adults in the United States were surveyed online between May 17 and July 7, 2024. 10,025 of these interviews took place before Donald Trump There were 5,169 felony convictions after the June 27 televised presidential debate, and another 5,016 afterward. The results were weighted to be representative of all adults in the United States. Full data tables are available at: LordAshcroftPolls.com.
LORD Ashcroft PC KCMG is an international businessman, philanthropist, pollster and author. He is a former Vice-Chairman of the British Conservative Party and Honorary President of the International Union for Democracy.
LordAshcroftPolls.com // LordAshcroft.com // Twitter/Facebook: @LordAshcroft
View original content:Lord Ashcroft poll: More Americans expect Trump to win in November: Biden’s ability more important factor than Trump’s character
SOURCE Lord Ashcroft Polls
