The 197 years it took Vietnam to overtake Singapore, given at the time, couldn’t help but surprise many people.
Speaking to Mr. IL Houng Lee, the reporter quoted some researchers’ prediction: Vietnam’s per capita income was more than USD 600 in 2005 (according to the IMF it was only USD 552). Some Vietnamese researchers hypothesize that: if the richer countries in ASEAN stop developing it will take Vietnam about 5 years to catch up with Indonesia and the Philippines, 20 years with Thailand, 24 years with Malaysia, 38 years with Brunei and 40 years with Singapore.
Mr IL Houng Lee said these analyzes are very interesting and can accurately reflect the real inequality in economic development. However, they may also not reflect the true magnitude of the development differentials between economies.
If based on the assumption that all countries maintain the average rate of development over the past 10 years the time for Vietnam to catch up with other countries is a little longer.
“For example, it could take Vietnam 18 years to catch up with Indonesia, 34 years with Thailand and 197 years with Singapore. The gap with Singapore is so great because the speed of development in the past 10 years is also very fast” – said Mr IL Houng Lee. At that time, Vietnam was ranked 7th out of 10 ASEAN member states in terms of income level and economic development.
If you’re still calculating by this formula, how have the numbers changed at this point?
Vietnam’s GDP per capita will be USD 3,743 in 2021 (according to the IMF). If we assume that the countries with average GDP in ASEAN stop developing, it will take about 3 years to catch up with Vietnam with Indonesia, 13 years with Thailand, 19 years with Malaysia and 50 years with Singapore.
If we assume that all the above countries maintain the average rate of development of the past 10 years (for the period 2012-2021), then Vietnam may need 8 years to catch up. Indonesia, 22 years with Thailand, 56 years with Malaysia and 102 years with Singapore.
GDP per capita in 2021 according to IMF: Vietnam USD 3,743, Indonesia USD 4,224; Thailand USD 7,808; Malaysia USD 11,124; Singapore 66,263 USD.
Currently, the GDP per capita of Vietnam is higher than that of the Philippines ($3,492).
Average GDP growth in the period 2012-2021: Vietnam 5.92%; Indonesia 4.29%; Thailand 2.3%; Malaysia 3.86%; Singapore 2.96%.
However, Mr IL Houng Lee and the IMF experts also explained that the above time period is the result of purely mechanical calculations. It may not reflect the real difference between the Vietnamese economy and other countries in the region.
In February 2022, Business Times (Singapore), in its article “Roar of a New Asian Tiger”, on Vietnam, noted: “Once among the poor countries. The economy of this country (Vietnam – PV) is currently growing rapidly, the World Bank describes it as one of the most dynamic and emerging countries in the entire East region. ASIAN”.
Source: CafeF
