Speaking recently at the first-ever Autumn Real Estate Forum in Hanoi, Can Van Luc, chief economist of state bank BIDV and member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council, said: “There is more of opportunities 1696461415 for the real estate market only challenges because it has overcome the most difficult period.
The central bank has cut its key interest rates four times this year, leading to lower interest rates on loans, and policies have been launched to support businesses and individuals, such as debt restructuring and preferential credit for social housing, he said.
The tax breaks also helped businesses overcome cash flow and liquidity challenges, he said. Tax exemptions, reductions and extensions this year are estimated at VND200 trillion (nearly $8.5 billion), he said. “These are unprecedented policies for businesses, including those in the real estate sector.”
Many corporate bonds will mature in March 2024, but the situation is under control, seems to be the consensus among analysts.
Meanwhile, inflation and interest rates tend to gradually decline, creating conditions for the central bank to ease monetary policy.
In August, inflation was 4.6% and the overnight interest rate had fallen almost to the level of early 2021.
The real estate sector also ranked second in terms of attracting FDI, with its $2 billion accounting for almost 10% of total inflows.
Nguyen Van Dinh, president of the Vietnam Association of Real Estate Agents, said the market had changed for the better.
A number of new projects put properties up for sale in the second quarter and there were 3,700 successful transactions, while there were almost no new offers in the first quarter and only about 1,000 transactions, Dinh said.
Between July and August, 5,000 additional transactions were recorded, 70% of which were in the apartment segment. The offer is gradually increasing again, mainly from 300 old projects.
Many investors have restructured their products, lowering prices to attract buyers.
Dinh said: “At the beginning of this year, many developers and investors stopped launching products because they were afraid no one would buy them. But since the third quarter, their confidence has returned.”
Experts said signs point to the market starting to recover in early 2024. Luc predicts the economy will grow nearly 6% in the third quarter and 7.5% in the fourth, and that the market real estate will perform better from the start of next year. .
He believes that early 2024 would be a good time to make investment decisions, as interest rates and land and housing prices decline.
Economist Dinh Trong Thinh said the market will see obvious changes starting from the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter of 2024, when the supply of social housing will be stronger.
He said developers and buyers would focus on affordable housing rather than luxury projects like apartments, villas and resorts to ensure cash flow.
Since the end of 2022, more than 400 social housing projects have been completed. One of them, a project to build one million social and worker housing units, should contribute to the recovery of the market.
According to the Vietnam Real Estate Research Institute, the market will see a V-shaped recovery from the middle of the second quarter of 2024.
The supply of apartments is expected to increase by 20-25% annually during the recovery period from 2024 to 2026.
In Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, apartment supply during this period will be 70,000 to 85,000 units per year, equivalent to pre-pandemic levels.
Experts, however, admitted that the market will continue to face challenges until 2030, as there is no national strategy for the housing market with a long-term vision.
They said long-term challenges include overlaps in policies and legal mechanisms, a shortage of resources, inflation and high interest rates, as well as poor quality of planning, infrastructure, market information and human resources.